Wellawaya Kirindi Oya water level

Expected to stay below alert level for the next 24 hours.

Published as 1.41 m (alert 4.4 m, minor flood 5.4 m, major flood 5.9 m)

• Alert (14.4 ft): unlikely, about 1 in 10
• Minor flood (17.7 ft): unlikely, about 1 in 10
• Major flood (19.4 ft): unlikely, about 1 in 10

Rain that fell

7.1 mm in the last 3 hours, 39 mm in the last 24 hours at this gauge (moderate rain)

Rain forecast

10 mm in the next 24 hours over the catchment (moderate rain). Forecast model estimate.

Satellite estimate of rain over the catchment: 17.8 mm in the last 6 hours, 35.8 mm in the last 24 hours (to 12:30 am). In this dry-zone area it often reads much higher than the gauges, so treat it as an upper figure. GSMaP data by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

• · At 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h nothing we tested beat 'level stays the same' for this gauge, so that is the line, with a range taken from how much the gauge has really changed over that time.

• How this is worked out
• · Latest level at Wellawaya and recent change. No gauge sits upstream of it (or none reports in step with it), so the catchment rain is its upstream signal.
• · Forecast model estimate of catchment rain (Open-Meteo, area average over 6 grid cells above Wellawaya): 12 mm modelled for the last 24 hours, 10 mm forecast for the next 24 hours, with ECMWF ensemble spread.
• · The 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hour steps use this gauge's own recent changes and the other gauges on the river (fitted to about 11 months of hourly readings, including the November 2025 Ditwah floods); where this was tested against 'level stays the same' it missed by less.