Every river gauge on this site has a next-hour forecast: where the river is expected to be in about an hour, with a range, refreshed every hour. As far as we know, it is the only public next-hour river forecast for Sri Lanka.
How well has it done? We check every forecast against what the gauge actually read later, and this updates by itself from our prediction log. As of 26 Oct 2026, over the last 30 days: 786 next-hour forecasts at 30 gauges missed by about 0.19 ft on average, against 0.26 ft for guessing “no change”. The real level landed inside the stated range 83% of the time, and rising, falling or steady was called right 58% of the time, against 21% for always saying steady.
Further ahead it is much less sure. Average miss: 3 hours 0.4 ft, 6 hours 0.7 ft, 12 hours 1.1 ft, 24 hours 1.5 ft (the 24-hour range is about 7.0 ft wide). It is a forecast, not an official warning.
The newer gauge-only model (next hour, 3 and 6 hours) has run since 24 Oct. Its own record so far: 297 next-hour checks, missing by about 0.31 ft on average, against 0.47 ft for “no change”.
How the forecast is made · Get it as data