Baddegama Gin Ganga water level

Above alert level now and could reach minor flood level around 7 am this morning (in about 6 hours) (about 50% chance).

Published as 3.52 m (alert 3.5 m, minor flood 4.0 m, major flood 5.0 m)

Elevated river-flow outlook this week.

• Minor flood (13.1 ft): possible, about 5 in 10, from about 7:06 am
• Major flood (16.4 ft): unlikely, about 1 in 10

Rain that fell

12 mm in the last 3 hours, 103 mm in the last 24 hours at this gauge (very heavy rain)

Rain forecast

29 mm in the next 24 hours over the catchment (moderate rain). Forecast model estimate.

Satellite estimate of rain over the catchment: 94.5 mm in the last 6 hours, 171.8 mm in the last 24 hours (to 12:30 am). It can differ from the gauges. GSMaP data by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

• · Outlook: the GloFAS global flood model has river flow at 301 m3/s in its highest member within 7 days, above the 1-in-20 level (113 m3/s). This is a heads-up only; it does not change the levels above.
• · Part of the range is above the highest level this model has seen (11.1 ft); treat it as a rough guide.
• · Some rain is forecast over the catchment: about 29 mm in the next 24 hours (ensemble range 8 to 38 mm).

• How this is worked out
• · Latest level at Baddegama and recent change. No gauge sits upstream of it (or none reports in step with it), so the catchment rain is its upstream signal.
• · Forecast model estimate of catchment rain (Open-Meteo, area average over 15 grid cells above Baddegama): 51 mm modelled for the last 24 hours, 29 mm forecast for the next 24 hours, with ECMWF ensemble spread.
• · The 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hour steps use this gauge's own recent changes and the other gauges on the river (fitted to about 11 months of hourly readings, including the November 2025 Ditwah floods); where this was tested against 'level stays the same' it missed by less.