Moragaswewa Deduru Oya · දෙදුරු ඔය ජල මට්ටම

Above alert level now and likely to reach minor flood level around 10 am this morning (in about 6 hours) (about 75% chance).

ප්‍රකාශිත අගය 5.30 m (අනතුරු ඇඟවීම 4.8 m, සුළු ගංවතුර 6.0 m, ප්‍රධාන ගංවතුර 7.0 m)

මෙම සතියේ ගංගා ජල ප්‍රවාහය ඉහළ යා හැක.

• සුළු ගංවතුර (19.7 ft): ඉඩ ඇත, 10 න් 7ක් පමණ, පෙ.ව. 10:16 පමණ සිට
• ප්‍රධාන ගංවතුර (23.0 ft): විය හැක, 10 න් 5ක් පමණ, ප.ව. 1:16 පමණ සිට

වැටුණු වැසි

මෙම මාපකයේ පසුගිය පැය 3 තුළ මි.මී. 0.0, පසුගිය පැය 24 තුළ මි.මී. 50 (මධ්‍යස්ථ වැසි) (මෙම ගඟට තද)

වැසි පුරෝකථනය

ජලඛණ්ඩය මත ඉදිරි පැය 24 තුළ මි.මී. 1.8 (සැහැල්ලු වැසි). කාලගුණ ආකෘතියේ ඇස්තමේන්තුවකි.

ජලඛණ්ඩය මත චන්ද්‍රිකා වර්ෂාව: පසුගිය පැය 6 තුළ මි.මී. 2.3, පසුගිය පැය 24 තුළ මි.මී. 90.8 (පෙ.ව. 4:30 දක්වා). එය මානයන්ට වඩා වෙනස් විය හැක. GSMaP data by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

• · Outlook: the GloFAS global flood model has river flow at 658 m3/s in its highest member within 7 days, above the 1-in-20 level (169 m3/s). This is a heads-up only; it does not change the levels above.
• · Part of the range is above the highest level this model has seen (16.8 ft); treat it as a rough guide.

• මෙය ගණනය කරන ආකාරය
• · Latest level at Moragaswewa and recent change. No gauge sits upstream of it (or none reports in step with it), so the catchment rain is its upstream signal.
• · Forecast model estimate of catchment rain (Open-Meteo, area average over 12 grid cells above Moragaswewa): 73 mm modelled for the last 24 hours, 2 mm forecast for the next 24 hours, with ECMWF ensemble spread.
• · The 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hour steps use this gauge's own recent changes and the other gauges on the river (fitted to about 11 months of hourly readings, including the November 2025 Ditwah floods); where this was tested against 'level stays the same' it missed by less.
• · The 6, 12, 24 hour steps read the rain the satellite measured over Moragaswewa's catchment (JAXA GSMaP, corrected for how it reads here), with rain beside the gauge and rain on the channels upstream timed separately (about 18 h from beside the gauge). Tested storm by storm it was closer than the version that reads the weather model's rain.
• · Heavy rain upstream is part of the 6, 12, 24 hour steps: rain that has fallen or is forecast over the catchment above Moragaswewa raises the level, and the top of the range allows for the heavier forecast rain. Tested storm by storm (leaving each storm out, Ditwah included) it was closer than the river's own trend alone.